Fluorine chemical industry: good policy to promote industrial upgrading
Release time:
2012-06-14 02:15
Source:
为改善我国氟化工产业大而不强，低附加值产品产能过剩的局面，工信部近日发布《氟化氢行业准入条件》。征求意见稿明确，新建生产企业的氟化氢总规模不得低于5万吨/年，新建氟化氢生产装置单套生产能力不得低于2万吨/年(资源综合利用方式生产氟化氢的除外)。 保护和整合萤石资源 在“十二五”规划中，氟化工将单列一个专项规划，拟进行强制性资源整合，使相关企业重点发展为锂离子电池配套的电解质六氟磷酸锂、为医药农药新品种配套的新型含氟中间体等产品，实现产业转型升级。 《征求意见稿》从“产业布局，技术，规模，能耗，环保，产品质量”等各个方面对国内氟化氢行业设置了准入门槛。我们分析认为，征求意见稿相关政策若实施，将对氟化氢乃至氟化工全产业链长期发展构成利好，主要影响体现在以下几个方面： 体现了国家保护和整合萤石资源的决心。虽然此次《征求意见稿》仅针对氟化氢行业作出限制，并没有直接涉及萤石资源，但从文中我们仍然可以看出国家整合萤石资源，控制氟初级产品出口的考虑。由于对萤石矿直接出口已采取配额制控制，因此目前氟初级产品基本以氢氟酸的形式出口;2009年国内出口10.8万吨，而今年截止到9月份，出口已达到11.6万吨，同比增长57.8%。此外，出口企业基本以外商独资合资企业为主。例如浙江省氢氟酸出口中有80%的比例来自外商投资企业。因此，政策出台将有效控制萤石资源加速外流的状况。 推动氟化工产业链价格上涨 将改变国内氟化氢及氟化工产业供求结构。由于近几年国内氟化氢产能大量投放，造成开工率逐年下降。2003年-2009年，产能年平均增长率为20.9%，而实际产量的年均增长速度为13.2%。截至2009年底，国内产能达到122万吨，产能利用率不足50%。由于产能过剩严重，客观上也促使国内企业利用出口消化剩余产能。政策出台后，不仅从源头卡紧了新产能的建设和投放，而且通过在技术、规模、能耗、环保、产品质量方面树立行业标准推动氢氟酸落后产能淘汰，行业供求结构有望逐步改善。由于氟化氢是氟化工产业链中必不可少的一环，因此氟化氢的供求趋于平衡也将对氟化工产业链产生积极的影响。 将推动氟化工产业链价格上涨。我们认为政策出台后将会从两个方面推动氟化工产品价格上涨。一方面，由于市场对国家控制萤石资源的认识进一步加强，萤石稀缺性资源的属性将在市场价格中得以反映，从而在原材料成本方面推动氟产品价格上涨。另一方面，由于中国是含氟初级化学品出口的主要国家，因此如果政策出台后导致中国出口量增速低于全球需求量增速，则全球供应短缺将推动含氟化学品价格普涨，而这又将反向推高国内氟化工产品价格。 长期利好相关上市公司 龙头企业更为受益。政策对龙头企业扩张整合和销量提升方面都有显著的利好作用。氢氟酸下游产品大部分属于资本密集型和技术密集型产业，我们估算目前国内拥有氟化氢装置的70余家企业中，只有20%的企业拥有下游产品的生产能力。而“禁止新建以氟化氢为最终产品的生产企业;严禁新建、扩建非原料用氟化氢生产装置。”将使未来氟化工行业的发展机会集中于拥有下游产品生产能力的龙头企业。此外由于未来氟化氢出口量可能无法满足全球的需求，因此国外企业将被迫购买更多氟化氢下游的含氟化工品做进一步的深加工，由于目前这些品种只有几家氟化工龙头企业具备大规模生产的能力，因此这部分需求的增长将提升龙头企业的销量。 氟化工行业在A股的上市公司主要有巨化股份、三爱富、多氟多和永太科技。根据分析，相关政策的出台既体现了国家对萤石及其下游氟化工产业的重视，也将中长期对氟化工行业健康发展起到积极作用，对行业内龙头企业发展的推动作用将更为明显。在上述公司中，永太科技以含氟精细化工品为主，与氟化氢行业的运行情况关联性较小;而其他三家企业都是行业内的综合性龙头企业，政策出台对相关企业将形成长期利好。 政策利好对巨化股份相对影响较大。主要原因是氟化氢行业下游应用以有机氟化物为主，因此，巨化股份和三爱富的影响相对显著。而巨化氟化物产品销售独立，三爱富相当比例产品供货给其战略合作者杜邦，毛利波动空间较小。因此，巨化股份在行业景气向好时，盈利空间较大。维持对巨化股份“推荐”的投资评级。
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